Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.4 – 53.16

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 80.7 ±19.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 19.33Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 17.01Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 22.06Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 89.2 ±19.1

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 4.37Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 22.56Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 26.23Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 5331, 6434

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 5331, 6434

Auto

8.0 15%

Teleop

23.2 44%

Endgame

21.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11429, 8844, 6508

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11429, 8844, 6508

Auto

11.7 23%

Teleop

27.5 55%

Endgame

10.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.4pts

Blue projected score53.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.2
Score range: 34–77
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 103.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

80.7Season APEX89.2

8Auto11.7

23.2Teleop27.5

21.1Endgame10.7

25Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	10
teleop	21	43
endgame	27	26
foul	5	45
total	77	124

Result

Final score

77 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.