Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.46 – 148.52

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.6 ±17.4

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 14.57Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 15.57Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 30.32Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±16.7

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 9.1Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 111.28Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 28.14Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4729, 5648, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4729, 5648, 10552

Auto

8.7 15%

Teleop

31.7 54%

Endgame

18.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 6497, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5876, 6497, 7113

Auto

33.1 24%

Teleop

79.8 59%

Endgame

23.4 17%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.5pts

Blue projected score148.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.1
Score range: 41–168
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 103.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.6Season APEX263.3

8.7Auto33.1

31.7Teleop79.8

18.4Endgame23.4

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	31
teleop	17	57
endgame	9	36
foul	0	0
total	35	124

Result

Final score

35 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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