Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.22 – 0

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.9 ±18.1

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 43.58Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 28.59Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 13.05Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 69.7 ±20.2

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -11.02Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 5.04Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 0.9Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6083, 7583, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6083, 7583, 4613

Auto

5.6 7%

Teleop

48.3 57%

Endgame

30.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6476, 11379, 7163

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6476, 11379, 7163

Auto

4.3 0%

Teleop

-20.8 89%

Endgame

-6.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score-5.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.2
Score range: -19–104
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.9Season APEX69.7

5.6Auto4.3

48.3Teleop-20.8

30.3Endgame-6.9

10Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	12
teleop	70	40
endgame	44	6
foul	0	0
total	115	58

Result

Final score

115 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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