Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.41 – 44.58

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.4 ±19.2

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 4.75Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 41.97Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 41.69Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106 ±20.8

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 26.19Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -7.29Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 25.68Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9433, 6996, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9433, 6996, 10342

Auto

7.8 9%

Teleop

54.1 62%

Endgame

26.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11130, 5988, 10958

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11130, 5988, 10958

Auto

18.9 43%

Teleop

20.8 47%

Endgame

4.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score44.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 26–107
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.4Season APEX106

7.8Auto18.9

54.1Teleop20.8

26Endgame4.5

14Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	15
teleop	47	9
endgame	28	7
foul	0	0
total	107	31

Result

Final score

107 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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