Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.48 – 261.67

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.1 ±18.5

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 21.01Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 21.79Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 21.68Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.2 ±17.5

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 75.38Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 3.82Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 182.47Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 10437, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 10437, 9191

Auto

9.5 15%

Teleop

29.0 47%

Endgame

23.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 9189, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6510, 9189, 5584

Auto

36.2 14%

Teleop

159.8 64%

Endgame

54.9 22%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.41 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.5pts

Blue projected score261.7pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.2
Score range: 45–281
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.1Season APEX499.2

9.5Auto36.2

29Teleop159.8

23.1Endgame54.9

17Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	46
teleop	11	155
endgame	5	20
foul	10	15
total	41	236

Result

Final score

41 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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