Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.16 – 38.09

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 75.8 ±20.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 10.69Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 13.19Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -3.72Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.1 ±18.8

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 2.6Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 3.52Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 31.97Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 11429, 9433

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5876, 11429, 9433

Auto

2.5 27%

Teleop

2.4 26%

Endgame

4.2 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9189, 5985, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9189, 5985, 7583

Auto

18.0 41%

Teleop

19.0 43%

Endgame

6.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.2pts

Blue projected score38.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.9
Score range: -1–59
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 44 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

75.8Season APEX310.1

2.5Auto18

2.4Teleop19

4.2Endgame6.9

94Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	2
teleop	11	11
endgame	0	12
foul	0	0
total	19	25

Result

Final score

19 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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