Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.52 – 142.42

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

9 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 90.8 ±20.2

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 6.55Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 16.9Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±18.6

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 8.15Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 115.35Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 18.92Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11429, 7128, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11429, 7128, 5648

Auto

6.7 18%

Teleop

20.1 53%

Endgame

10.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10350, 7433, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10350, 7433, 4729

Auto

32.9 25%

Teleop

64.4 49%

Endgame

33.4 26%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.5pts

Blue projected score142.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.9
Score range: 25–161
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

90.8Season APEX218.8

6.7Auto32.9

20.1Teleop64.4

10.9Endgame33.4

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	42
teleop	3	29
endgame	0	7
foul	0	0
total	9	78

Result

Final score

9 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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