Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.13 – 48.66

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.5 ±14.4

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 14.21Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 84.72Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 104.2Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.8 ±19.1

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 15.55Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 26.77Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 6.34Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8844, 8613, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8844, 8613, 6497

Auto

45.9 23%

Teleop

121.4 61%

Endgame

32.0 16%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5331, 6508, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5331, 6508, 9147

Auto

11.5 23%

Teleop

29.2 59%

Endgame

8.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.1pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.5
Score range: 30–222
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.5Season APEX91.8

45.9Auto11.5

121.4Teleop29.2

32Endgame8.6

32Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	13
teleop	130	16
endgame	20	22
foul	30	5
total	267	56

Result

Final score

267 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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