Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.23 – 72.3

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±20.2

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 28.44Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 18.88Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 10.91Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 104.2 ±17.9

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 10.57Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 35.66Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 26.07Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7113, 6434, 6432

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7113, 6434, 6432

Auto

10.1 22%

Teleop

8.3 18%

Endgame

27.3 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 10552, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5876, 10552, 4739

Auto

20.1 32%

Teleop

26.0 41%

Endgame

17.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.2pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 39–91
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.3Season APEX104.2

10.1Auto20.1

8.3Teleop26

27.3Endgame17.5

37Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	17	13
endgame	20	15
foul	5	0
total	65	47

Result

Final score

65 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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