Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.48 – 82.7

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±18.1

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 5.47Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 14.51Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 27.5Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±19.1

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 44.08Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 21.84Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 16.78Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11379, 4613, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11379, 4613, 11130

Auto

20.9 40%

Teleop

16.7 32%

Endgame

14.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6083, 10958, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6083, 10958, 4788

Auto

24.5 32%

Teleop

37.5 50%

Endgame

13.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.5pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 28–102
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.9Season APEX189.3

20.9Auto24.5

16.7Teleop37.5

14.3Endgame13.6

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	0
teleop	10	44
endgame	0	35
foul	15	10
total	39	89

Result

Final score

39 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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