Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.04 – 111.93

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±17.5

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 77.09Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 25.78Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 46.17Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.1 ±19.7

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 117.54Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 5.08Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -10.69Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6510, 9191, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6510, 9191, 10342

Auto

21.3 15%

Teleop

91.5 64%

Endgame

29.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3132, 9433, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3132, 9433, 6476

Auto

11.1 11%

Teleop

70.3 67%

Endgame

23.4 22%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score111.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 93–168
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 104.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.5Season APEX164.1

21.3Auto11.1

91.5Teleop70.3

29.5Endgame23.4

0Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	5
teleop	70	65
endgame	25	32
foul	5	15
total	116	117

Result

Final score

116 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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