Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.84 – 222.56

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.9 ±17.5

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 16.96Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 0.35Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 16.53Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±17.4

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 15.93Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 172.59Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 34.04Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5985, 11429, 4774

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5985, 11429, 4774

Auto

7.0 19%

Teleop

27.0 74%

Endgame

2.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5648, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5648, 5584, 6996

Auto

26.5 12%

Teleop

136.8 64%

Endgame

50.9 24%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.35 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.8pts

Blue projected score222.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -188.7
Score range: 15–242
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.9Season APEX304.8

7Auto26.5

27Teleop136.8

2.7Endgame50.9

35Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	21
teleop	21	184
endgame	34	68
foul	5	5
total	67	278

Result

Final score

67 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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