Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.22 – 58.83

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 45 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±16.2

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 11.62Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 6.19Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 96.41Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.2 ±19.6

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 55.57Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -1.3Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 4.56Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4729, 5331, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4729, 5331, 6497

Auto

23.3 22%

Teleop

60.5 58%

Endgame

20.7 20%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9574, 7163, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9574, 7163, 9147

Auto

11.5 19%

Teleop

38.0 62%

Endgame

11.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.2pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.4
Score range: 41–132
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX122.2

23.3Auto11.5

60.5Teleop38

20.7Endgame11.4

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	12
teleop	108	24
endgame	36	14
foul	10	25
total	188	75

Result

Final score

188 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 45 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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