Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.1 – 70.28

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±19.7

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 20.46Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 30.57Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 36.07Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.8 ±19.7

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 28.21Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 5.86Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 36.21Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6432, 6508, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6432, 6508, 7583

Auto

9.8 12%

Teleop

37.4 48%

Endgame

31.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9146, 10350, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9146, 10350, 10552

Auto

16.9 23%

Teleop

34.2 47%

Endgame

21.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.1pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: 51–106
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.8Season APEX107.8

9.8Auto16.9

37.4Teleop34.2

31.3Endgame21.2

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	15
teleop	16	23
endgame	16	9
foul	0	15
total	39	62

Result

Final score

39 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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