Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.33 – 113.24

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 82 ±20.2

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 9.76Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -12.1Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 6.67Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.7 ±17.1

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 81.41Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 28.69Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 3.14Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6434, 5988, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6434, 5988, 5876

Auto

1.3 0%

Teleop

-7.6 100%

Endgame

-1.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8613, 4739, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8613, 4739, 9189

Auto

22.5 21%

Teleop

63.0 60%

Endgame

19.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score4.3pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.9
Score range: -15–132
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

82Season APEX383.7

1.3Auto22.5

-7.6Teleop63

-1.2Endgame19.9

83Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	64
teleop	22	21
endgame	15	21
foul	0	15
total	48	121

Result

Final score

48 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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