Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.58 – 124.73

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±19.6

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 28.3Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 115.28Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 20Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±18.1

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 13.76Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 25.4Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 85.57Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7113, 7433, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7113, 7433, 7128

Auto

32.9 21%

Teleop

73.0 46%

Endgame

53.7 34%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8844, 10437, 10002

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8844, 10437, 10002

Auto

32.7 29%

Teleop

65.7 58%

Endgame

14.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.9
Score range: 106–183
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.4Season APEX275.2

32.9Auto32.7

73Teleop65.7

53.7Endgame14.4

34Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	35
teleop	59	68
endgame	28	24
foul	30	5
total	165	132

Result

Final score

165 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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