Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.62 – 241.79

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±19.1

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 133.76Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 27.02Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 30.84Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.2 ±19.1

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 7.4Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 185.69Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 48.7Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 9146, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3132, 9146, 7113

Auto

35.7 20%

Teleop

98.0 54%

Endgame

46.2 26%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7128, 5584, 6083

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7128, 5584, 6083

Auto

24.5 10%

Teleop

149.6 63%

Endgame

64.1 27%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score241.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 171–263
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201Season APEX320.2

35.7Auto24.5

98Teleop149.6

46.2Endgame64.1

65Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	53	63
endgame	33	49
foul	15	10
total	124	138

Result

Final score

124 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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