Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.08 – 26.95

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±18.5

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 16.53Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 14.72Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 157.83Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±18.1

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -9.46Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 22.87Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 13.54Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11130, 9191, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11130, 9191, 5584

Auto

28.3 16%

Teleop

97.5 54%

Endgame

53.8 30%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6476, 5985, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

27 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6476, 5985, 5648

Auto

0.7 3%

Teleop

21.8 100%

Endgame

-1.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.1pts

Blue projected score27pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.1
Score range: 9–207
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX250.6

28.3Auto0.7

97.5Teleop21.8

53.8Endgame-1.4

0Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	16
teleop	183	6
endgame	60	1
foul	0	0
total	292	23

Result

Final score

292 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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