Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.24 – 99.86

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±14.9

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 95.77Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 76.19Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 58.28Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.3 ±20.2

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 43.57Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 48.61Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 7.68Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 6510, 9574

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 6510, 9574

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

139.9 62%

Endgame

46.9 21%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10342, 6083, 11429

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10342, 6083, 11429

Auto

12.1 12%

Teleop

68.5 69%

Endgame

18.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score230.2pts

Blue projected score99.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.4
Score range: 82–248
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX145.3

38.8Auto12.1

139.9Teleop68.5

46.9Endgame18.4

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	15
teleop	177	47
endgame	29	27
foul	0	10
total	237	99

Result

Final score

237 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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