Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.54 – 166.77

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±18.6

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 6.49Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 18.53Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 24.52Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±19.1

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 8.21Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 36.86Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 121.7Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 4729, 6432

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9147, 4729, 6432

Auto

8.8 21%

Teleop

7.8 18%

Endgame

25.7 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11379, 7583, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11379, 7583, 3132

Auto

29.8 18%

Teleop

99.6 62%

Endgame

32.2 20%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.5pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.2
Score range: 32–185
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.1Season APEX233.4

8.8Auto29.8

7.8Teleop99.6

25.7Endgame32.2

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	35
teleop	2	72
endgame	0	31
foul	15	15
total	29	153

Result

Final score

29 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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