Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.67 – 62.03

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.3 ±19.7

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 2.8Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -4Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 17.87Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 93.6 ±18.5

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 39.26Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 20.36Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 2.41Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6434, 9433, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6434, 9433, 4739

Auto

2.3 11%

Teleop

0.9 4%

Endgame

18.1 85%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10552, 4774, 7163

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10552, 4774, 7163

Auto

7.9 13%

Teleop

33.4 55%

Endgame

19.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score16.7pts

Blue projected score62pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: -1–80
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 101.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.3Season APEX93.6

2.3Auto7.9

0.9Teleop33.4

18.1Endgame19.6

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	26	21
endgame	11	12
foul	30	5
total	84	47

Result

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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