Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.47 – 108.13

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 98.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.7 ±17.7

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 2.76Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 101.64Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 134.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±17.5

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 48.61Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 23.4Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 36.12Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5988, 8613, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5988, 8613, 7433

Auto

43.5 18%

Teleop

138.0 58%

Endgame

55.3 23%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6508, 4613, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6508, 4613, 9146

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

59.5 56%

Endgame

33.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.5pts

Blue projected score108.1pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.3
Score range: 90–256
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 101.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.7Season APEX369.7

43.5Auto13.6

138Teleop59.5

55.3Endgame33.1

60Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	6
teleop	63	10
endgame	7	18
foul	5	0
total	115	34

Result

Final score

115 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 98.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.