Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.48 – 50.05

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.1 ±18.5

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 7.56Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 21.86Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 5.06Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±19.2

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 41.55Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX -1.28Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 9.78Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4788, 7113, 8844

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4788, 7113, 8844

Auto

11.1 31%

Teleop

8.5 24%

Endgame

16.3 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6996, 9189, 10350

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6996, 9189, 10350

Auto

13.1 31%

Teleop

31.9 75%

Endgame

-2.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.5pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 15–69
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 102.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.1Season APEX140.2

11.1Auto13.1

8.5Teleop31.9

16.3Endgame-2.4

65Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	19
teleop	36	17
endgame	13	19
foul	0	0
total	79	55

Result

Final score

79 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.