Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.84 – 226.3

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 121.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.7 ±18

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 99.47Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 29.39Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 35.98Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.9 ±16.2

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 135.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 96.5Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX -6.14Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 11130, 6432

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 11130, 6432

Auto

30.3 19%

Teleop

87.9 56%

Endgame

39.1 25%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5584, 3132, 5985

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5584, 3132, 5985

Auto

34.4 15%

Teleop

134.8 60%

Endgame

54.5 24%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.8pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 147–244
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 99.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.7Season APEX550.9

30.3Auto34.4

87.9Teleop134.8

39.1Endgame54.5

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	28	270
endgame	28	69
foul	0	10
total	83	387

Result

Final score

83 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 121.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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