Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.91 – 124.07

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±17.5

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 73.42Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 18.7Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 0.79Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±19.2

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 53.41Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 44.64Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 26.02Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6510, 4739, 5988

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6510, 4739, 5988

Auto

13.7 15%

Teleop

59.8 64%

Endgame

19.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7583, 9146, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7583, 9146, 4729

Auto

19.6 17%

Teleop

62.7 54%

Endgame

32.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 75–142
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.2Season APEX171.3

13.7Auto19.6

59.8Teleop62.7

19.9Endgame32.8

70Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	54	23
endgame	16	26
foul	5	15
total	96	81

Result

Final score

96 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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