Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.87 – 61.88

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.6 ±20.8

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 14.32Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -8.07Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 38.62Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.2 ±17

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 28.82Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 18.23Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 14.83Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6432, 10350, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6432, 10350, 10342

Auto

10.7 26%

Teleop

16.4 39%

Endgame

14.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10958, 4613, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10958, 4613, 4729

Auto

15.3 36%

Teleop

14.1 33%

Endgame

13.3 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score61.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17
Score range: 24–83
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.6Season APEX409.2

10.7Auto15.3

16.4Teleop14.1

14.8Endgame13.3

13Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	12
teleop	11	40
endgame	1	19
foul	15	0
total	32	71

Result

Final score

32 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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