Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.43 – 134.61

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 93.6 ±20.8

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 42.06Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -9.46Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 16.83Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±17.5

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 7.71Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 76.84Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 50.06Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10342, 6476, 10958

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10342, 6476, 10958

Auto

19.6 45%

Teleop

20.9 48%

Endgame

2.6 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7163, 10002, 6508

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7163, 10002, 6508

Auto

19.2 16%

Teleop

78.4 67%

Endgame

20.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.4pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.2
Score range: 31–153
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

93.6Season APEX270.7

19.6Auto19.2

20.9Teleop78.4

2.6Endgame20

79Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	14	90
endgame	11	23
foul	20	0
total	60	138

Result

Final score

60 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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