Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.9 – 37.08

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.2 ±17.1

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 109.35Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 33.06Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 11.49Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.5 ±20.2

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 19.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -1.98Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 19.72Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 4774, 9433

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8613, 4774, 9433

Auto

23.1 15%

Teleop

94.5 61%

Endgame

37.6 24%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7113, 10350, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7113, 10350, 10437

Auto

16.1 54%

Teleop

11.0 37%

Endgame

2.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.8
Score range: 19–172
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.2Season APEX108.5

23.1Auto16.1

94.5Teleop11

37.6Endgame2.9

7Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	11	36
endgame	11	20
foul	0	0
total	32	77

Result

Final score

32 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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