Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.85 – 197.74

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 82.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±18

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 27.11Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 42.33Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 5.41Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.5 ±19.1

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 153.9Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 20.47Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 23.37Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6996, 9574, 11379

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6996, 9574, 11379

Auto

10.8 15%

Teleop

43.8 59%

Endgame

19.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7433, 8844, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7433, 8844, 5876

Auto

40.5 21%

Teleop

108.6 55%

Endgame

46.7 24%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.9pts

Blue projected score197.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.9
Score range: 57–216
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 101.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.8Season APEX178.5

10.8Auto40.5

43.8Teleop108.6

19.4Endgame46.7

60Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	15
teleop	66	33
endgame	25	37
foul	10	5
total	132	90

Result

Final score

132 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 82.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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