Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.79 – 51.66

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±18.8

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX -6.04Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 17.6Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 22.23Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 110 ±19.1

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 22.23Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 17.98Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 11.45Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9189, 7128, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9189, 7128, 4613

Auto

1.0 3%

Teleop

6.3 20%

Endgame

24.6 77%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5648, 4788, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5648, 4788, 5331

Auto

17.4 32%

Teleop

33.8 63%

Endgame

2.4 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.8pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.9
Score range: 16–70
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 102.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.8Season APEX110

1Auto17.4

6.3Teleop33.8

24.6Endgame2.4

87Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	7
teleop	36	2
endgame	15	9
foul	5	5
total	76	23

Result

Final score

76 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.