Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.88 – 76.09

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.2 ±19.7

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 13.96Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 38.43Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -12.51Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±17

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 34.1Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 1.07Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 40.92Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 9146, 11429

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4739, 9146, 11429

Auto

15.1 43%

Teleop

11.9 34%

Endgame

7.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4729, 5985, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4729, 5985, 11130

Auto

16.3 20%

Teleop

41.9 52%

Endgame

22.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 21–95
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.2Season APEX332.6

15.1Auto16.3

11.9Teleop41.9

7.9Endgame22.6

77Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	34	6
endgame	18	1
foul	0	0
total	64	25

Result

Final score

64 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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