Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.58 – 37.21

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±17.3

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -18.77Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 88.33Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 21.02Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.7 ±20.8

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 2.9Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 19.15Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 15.16Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9191, 3132, 6508

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9191, 3132, 6508

Auto

13.5 18%

Teleop

43.2 57%

Endgame

19.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6434, 10958, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6434, 10958, 10437

Auto

15.8 67%

Teleop

9.9 42%

Endgame

-2.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.6pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 19–109
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 102.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX126.7

13.5Auto15.8

43.2Teleop9.9

19.1Endgame-2

83Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	133	13
endgame	59	8
foul	0	0
total	213	43

Result

Final score

213 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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