Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.57 – 267.01

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 82.7 ±19.1

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 37Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 21.35Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 5.22Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±16.7

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 92.77Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 33.99Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 140.25Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 5876, 10350

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 5876, 10350

Auto

9.3 16%

Teleop

51.7 89%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 6083, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 6083, 7433

Auto

59.4 24%

Teleop

132.1 53%

Endgame

57.1 23%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.34 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score267pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -203.4
Score range: 46–285
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

82.7Season APEX404.7

9.3Auto59.4

51.7Teleop132.1

-2.8Endgame57.1

8Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	43
teleop	23	221
endgame	14	62
foul	0	0
total	48	326

Result

Final score

48 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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