Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.97 – 152.79

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.6 ±16.2

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 22.17Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 33.06Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 27.74Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±17

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 38.65Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 89.01Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 25.13Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 4788, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10552, 4788, 4613

Auto

23.3 29%

Teleop

36.4 46%

Endgame

20.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6996, 6510, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6996, 6510, 7128

Auto

13.4 9%

Teleop

93.9 61%

Endgame

45.9 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.8
Score range: 65–171
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.6Season APEX430.7

23.3Auto13.4

36.4Teleop93.9

20.1Endgame45.9

29Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	15
teleop	19	76
endgame	13	17
foul	0	0
total	39	108

Result

Final score

39 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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