Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.27 – 34.85

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 70.5 ±20.2

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 41.68Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -12.61Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 13.2Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±19.6

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 0.4Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 14.41Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 20.04Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9574, 6476, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9574, 6476, 5331

Auto

1.3 3%

Teleop

9.0 23%

Endgame

28.3 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11379, 9433, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11379, 9433, 7113

Auto

10.6 33%

Teleop

3.4 11%

Endgame

17.7 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.3pts

Blue projected score34.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.4
Score range: 17–60
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 102.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

70.5Season APEX100.5

1.3Auto10.6

9Teleop3.4

28.3Endgame17.7

85Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	9
teleop	27	28
endgame	2	26
foul	0	0
total	44	63

Result

Final score

44 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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