Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.11 – 54.63

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±17.1

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 91.09Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 22.57Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 25.45Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 93.7 ±19.1

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -11.93Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 31.71Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 34.85Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 11130, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8613, 11130, 10552

Auto

45.3 34%

Teleop

63.3 48%

Endgame

23.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5988, 4774, 9574

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5988, 4774, 9574

Auto

6.3 10%

Teleop

35.7 56%

Endgame

21.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.1pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.5
Score range: 34–160
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX93.7

45.3Auto6.3

63.3Teleop35.7

23.4Endgame21.6

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	9
teleop	144	31
endgame	50	18
foul	0	0
total	248	58

Result

Final score

248 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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