Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.55 – 155.17

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 79.6 ±19.6

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 2.25Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 27.16Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 29.14Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±18.4

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 26.07Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 26.87Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 102.23Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9189, 5648, 8844

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9189, 5648, 8844

Auto

4.6 7%

Teleop

49.1 79%

Endgame

8.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7583, 10342, 8613

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7583, 10342, 8613

Auto

17.5 12%

Teleop

101.7 68%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score155.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.6
Score range: 41–173
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

79.6Season APEX437.6

4.6Auto17.5

49.1Teleop101.7

8.5Endgame30.9

112Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	51
teleop	9	136
endgame	2	51
foul	5	5
total	26	243

Result

Final score

26 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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