Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.67 – 81.34

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.7 ±20.8

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 14.25Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -14.12Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 36.54Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 88.8 ±20.8

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -2.33Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 24.29Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 59.38Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10437, 5988, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10437, 5988, 9146

Auto

17.0 62%

Teleop

14.1 51%

Endgame

-3.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11429, 6434, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11429, 6434, 11130

Auto

21.1 28%

Teleop

38.9 51%

Endgame

16.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.7pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: 18–100
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.7Season APEX88.8

17Auto21.1

14.1Teleop38.9

-3.6Endgame16.7

206Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	40	7
endgame	17	0
foul	0	0
total	71	16

Result

Final score

71 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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