Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.48 – 96.65

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±18.5

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 0.33Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX -8.56Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 59.71Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 104 ±17.3

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 16.15Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 39.39Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 41.11Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6083, 9147, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6083, 9147, 3132

Auto

14.4 34%

Teleop

24.2 57%

Endgame

3.7 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6508, 4739, 4774

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6508, 4739, 4774

Auto

7.2 8%

Teleop

58.9 68%

Endgame

21.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.5pts

Blue projected score96.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.2
Score range: 32–116
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.2Season APEX104

14.4Auto7.2

24.2Teleop58.9

3.7Endgame21.1

167Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	8
teleop	120	41
endgame	32	13
foul	0	0
total	174	62

Result

Final score

174 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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