Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.08 – 150.81

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±15.7

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 79.44Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 33.56Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -0.92Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.8 ±13.5

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 20.84Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 40.97Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 4729, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10002, 4729, 9191

Auto

19.4 21%

Teleop

48.4 51%

Endgame

26.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 6996, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 6996, 4613

Auto

20.6 14%

Teleop

83.2 55%

Endgame

48.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score150.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.7
Score range: 94–169
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.1Season APEX590.8

19.4Auto20.6

48.4Teleop83.2

26.4Endgame48.6

89Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	43
teleop	30	79
endgame	10	17
foul	25	15
total	86	154

Result

Final score

86 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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