Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.79 – 9.88

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 81.4 ±20.8

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 0.58Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 22.33Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -16.12Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±17.5

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 3.82Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 23.7Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX -17.64Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10350, 7128, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10350, 7128, 6476

Auto

-5.0 41%

Teleop

-11.1 92%

Endgame

4.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5985, 5876, 11379

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5985, 5876, 11379

Auto

6.3 57%

Teleop

12.8 100%

Endgame

-8.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score6.8pts

Blue projected score9.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: -12–29
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

81.4Season APEX288.4

-5Auto6.3

-11.1Teleop12.8

4Endgame-8.1

84Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	8	23
endgame	11	8
foul	5	0
total	31	48

Result

Final score

31 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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