Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.54 – 176.25

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 68.9 ±20.2

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 15.98Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 31.48Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX -13.92Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±18.1

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 117.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 46.23Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 12.95Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5331, 7113, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5331, 7113, 9189

Auto

4.5 18%

Teleop

-1.0 0%

Endgame

21.0 86%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7433, 6510, 6432

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7433, 6510, 6432

Auto

33.4 21%

Teleop

78.3 49%

Endgame

48.3 30%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.5pts

Blue projected score176.2pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.7
Score range: 16–194
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

68.9Season APEX468.1

4.5Auto33.4

-1Teleop78.3

21Endgame48.3

91Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	47
teleop	32	152
endgame	10	84
foul	0	0
total	56	283

Result

Final score

56 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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