Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.64 – 102.78

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.8 ±18

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 8.77Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 80.61Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 50.26Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±16.2

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 24.27Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 45.3Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 33.21Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11429, 6497, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11429, 6497, 10437

Auto

29.1 21%

Teleop

74.5 54%

Endgame

34.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4613, 3132, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4613, 3132, 4739

Auto

10.0 10%

Teleop

74.2 77%

Endgame

12.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.6pts

Blue projected score102.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 86–157
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 95.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.8Season APEX472.5

29.1Auto10

74.5Teleop74.2

34.6Endgame12.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	27
teleop	47	75
endgame	0	55
foul	20	0
total	104	157

Result

Final score

104 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree