Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109 – 73.22

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±18

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 56.08Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 20.25Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 32.67Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.7 ±19.6

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 34.31Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 20.93Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 17.98Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11130, 6508, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11130, 6508, 6996

Auto

12.5 12%

Teleop

64.8 61%

Endgame

29.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7128, 5876, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7128, 5876, 9147

Auto

13.6 19%

Teleop

47.2 65%

Endgame

12.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score73.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 55–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 97.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.6Season APEX106.7

12.5Auto13.6

64.8Teleop47.2

29.1Endgame12.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	49	18
endgame	25	11
foul	0	0
total	86	40

Result

Final score

86 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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