Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.74 – 105.49

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.1 ±19.7

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 22.04Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 15.23Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 17.47Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±17.4

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.37Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 65.25Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 22.87Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 7163, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4739, 7163, 5331

Auto

14.0 26%

Teleop

25.5 47%

Endgame

14.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9191, 6996, 8844

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9191, 6996, 8844

Auto

28.3 28%

Teleop

45.4 45%

Endgame

26.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.7pts

Blue projected score105.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.7
Score range: 34–126
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.1Season APEX176.5

14Auto28.3

25.5Teleop45.4

14.7Endgame26.7

37Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	11	38
endgame	0	22
foul	0	0
total	22	72

Result

Final score

22 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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