Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.34 – 80.14

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 78.5 ±18.5

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -10.83Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 52.8Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 22.37Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.8 ±18.6

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -12.11Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 29.33Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 62.92Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6476, 4774, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6476, 4774, 4788

Auto

14.3 28%

Teleop

15.6 31%

Endgame

20.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5988, 8844, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5988, 8844, 4729

Auto

4.6 5%

Teleop

57.8 68%

Endgame

22.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score80.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.8
Score range: 46–98
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 100.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

78.5Season APEX124.8

14.3Auto4.6

15.6Teleop57.8

20.7Endgame22

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	8
teleop	21	28
endgame	1	8
foul	15	5
total	43	49

Result

Final score

43 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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