Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.79 – 33.1

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

12 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 94.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±18.1

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 35.95Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 35.11Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -15.27Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±19.1

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -11.85Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 68.47Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -23.52Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7113, 5985, 7163

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7113, 5985, 7163

Auto

12.9 22%

Teleop

24.6 42%

Endgame

20.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9191, 7433, 10958

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9191, 7433, 10958

Auto

22.3 78%

Teleop

0.3 1%

Endgame

5.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score33.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 15–74
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 98.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX214.8

12.9Auto22.3

24.6Teleop0.3

20.4Endgame5.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	51
teleop	0	65
endgame	0	43
foul	0	20
total	12	179

Result

Final score

12 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 94.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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