Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.05 – 86.01

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 84.4 ±19.1

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX -1.84Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 60.33Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX -20.44Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.3 ±18.8

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 37.8Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 44.86Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 3.35Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9189, 10552, 11379

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9189, 10552, 11379

Auto

9.3 27%

Teleop

17.9 51%

Endgame

7.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9146, 10002, 9433

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9146, 10002, 9433

Auto

15.7 21%

Teleop

39.1 52%

Endgame

20.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.1pts

Blue projected score86pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48
Score range: 20–104
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

84.4Season APEX269.3

9.3Auto15.7

17.9Teleop39.1

7.6Endgame20.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	28
teleop	8	85
endgame	0	33
foul	5	0
total	25	146

Result

Final score

25 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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