Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.54 – 0.47

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±19.1

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 14.05Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 35.33Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 1.16Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 96.5 ±19.7

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 35.33Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11429NEW AI

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 1.16Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -36.02Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 10437, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3132, 10437, 5876

Auto

19.8 49%

Teleop

8.8 22%

Endgame

12.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4788, 11429, 5988

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4788, 11429, 5988

Auto

12.7 0%

Teleop

-15.7 100%

Endgame

-1.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.5pts

Blue projected score0.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: -18–69
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 97.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.3Season APEX96.5

19.8Auto12.7

8.8Teleop-15.7

12Endgame-1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	105	16
endgame	13	0
foul	5	0
total	139	29

Result

Final score

139 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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