Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.81 – 36.05

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 77.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.3 ±17.5

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 48.86Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 18Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 4.95Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374 ±18.1

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX -3.39Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 28.49Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 10.95Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7433, 9147, 5985

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7433, 9147, 5985

Auto

23.1 36%

Teleop

21.8 34%

Endgame

18.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4613, 7113, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4613, 7113, 10342

Auto

8.4 32%

Teleop

13.0 50%

Endgame

4.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score36.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 20–88
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 91.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.3Season APEX374

23.1Auto8.4

21.8Teleop13

18.8Endgame4.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	8
teleop	88	52
endgame	22	43
foul	0	5
total	155	108

Result

Final score

155 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 77.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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